Nº 17b · Replication human-baseline replication map · 80 years of social science

Sixty years of behavioral science. One arc.

350
studies replicated · 2025 cohort
≥ 93%
bioequivalence to the original effect
0 / 52
competitors making this claim · 2026 dossier
The classical literature found the stated/revealed gap. The LLM-as-subject literature began closing it. Subconscious productionizes the closure. Each milestone below links to the paper.
  1. 1957
    Classical · stated/revealed identified
    Festinger & Carlsmith · Stanford
    Cognitive consequences of forced compliance.
    Paper ↗ Bibliography ↗
  2. 1974
    Classical · choice modeling · load-bearing for our method
    Daniel McFadden · Berkeley
    Conditional logit analysis of qualitative choice behavior — the random-utility framework Subconscious uses.
    Paper ↗ Nobel lecture ↗
  3. 1979
    Classical · gap formalized
    Kahneman & Tversky · Econometrica
    Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk.
    Paper ↗ Bibliography ↗
  4. 2022
    LLM-as-subject · feasibility
    Argyle, Busby, Rasmussen, Gubler, Bail · BYU + Duke
    Out of One, Many — using language models to simulate human samples.
    Paper ↗ Bibliography ↗
  5. 2024
    LLM-as-subject · scale
    Park, Zou, Shaw, Hill, Cai, Morris, Willer, Liang, Bernstein · Stanford
    Generative agent simulations of 1,000 people.
    Paper ↗ Bibliography ↗
  6. 2025
    Production · the closure shipped
    Subconscious · causl.io
    First production replication wave — 350 RCTs · ≥ 93% bioequivalence to the original effect.
    Full corpus ↗ Discord ↗
MethodSynthetic respondents drawn from a U.S.-population trait distribution. Each study replayed under the original protocol. Effects compared at the effect-size level, not the surface answer.
BioequivalenceReplication effect within 1 SD of the original mean, in the same direction, p < 0.05. The 93% figure is the 2025-cohort hit rate.
Why this mattersThe dossier surveys 52 commercial competitors. Zero make a human-baseline replication claim. The substrate — not the chatbot — is the moat.
More research go.subconscious.ai/data ↗
Join the discussion Discord ↗